We Already use Bayes Theorem

What’s Up Heathens! Today we are talking to Richard Carrier about Mythicism and Bayesian Analysis for History. We actually already use Bayesian analysis in history and today we take a look at how to use Bayes Theorem correctly.

We start off talking about the Minimal Mythicist theory as a way to introduce people to Mythicism. That Jesus was a myth from the beginning and never actually walked the earth. He was a celestial deity who only communicated through visions or scriptures. If you would like to know more about Mythicism, in general, I would highly suggest getting the app that is linked down below.

We also discuss Bayesian Analysis for historical theories. A lot of people are adverse to using Bayesian analysis but we already use that method when we do history. It’s just defined now. So Bayesian analysis is a probability function of your prior knowledge of some historical event. This includes evidence for and against the historical claim. Historians already do a less defined version of this because they can only tell you what most probably happened and not anything definite or 100% true.

Richard Carrier takes us through the evidence of Tacitus and Tim O’Neil’s claims about Tacitus. Tim O’Neil claims that Everything Tacitus said wasn’t part of common Christian theology when Tacitus wrote his portion. Carrier explains why this is highly implausible because Tacitus was writing in the second century and was in contact with Pliny the younger who was interrogating Christians at the time.

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